Thursday, March 01, 2007
The Super-Primary and the Return of the Smoke Filled Rooms
Ex-Clinton (Bill that is) pollster and Fox News talking head Dick Morris has an insightful column in the Hill newspaper this week.
Commenting on the move by nineteen states to move their primary day up until February 5, only two weeks after the New Hampshire primary, Morris says
Right now in the Democrats, there is only one person who will likely be the frontrunner in abstract polls come the fall and has the money to go straight from New Hampshire and run a 19-20 state campaign at once. Of course, that's Sen. Clinton.
The creation of what Morris calls the Super-primary would be the final death of the reforms made in the Democratic Party nominating process by McGovern commission in 1972. Pre-'72, the Democratic Party picked its Presidential candidate in the proverbial smoke filled rooms. Big time Democratic Party big-wigs like big-city Mayors, heads of a state Democratic patronage machines, elected officials and representatives from organized labor would hash out the preferred candidate in back room somewhere. Primaries were kind of a sideshow and usually were only a way to prove the viability of a candidate in a general election, like JFK's famous victory in the West Virginia primary of 1960 that proved that Protestants could vote for a Catholic.
That system came under assault by the party's increasingly dominate anti-war faction in 1968 as pro-war Hubert Humphrey was foisted on the party despite the fact that the Vice-President had not even bothered to run in a single primary. The McGovern Commission, headed by Sen. George McGovern was entrusted to rewrite the rules of the selection process that would be more in line with feelings of the grassroots.
The system set up by McGovern was one where any candidate hoping to win the nomination had to compete in a series of primaries and caucuses. The primary dates were spread out far enough in the calendar that an underdog candidate could win early primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire through a grassroots campaign and then use the period of time between their upset victory and the next primary or caucus to raise money (now that they were more viable in eyes of party leaders) to play a competitive role. Its how McGovern himself and Jimmy Carter were able to win the nomination even though no one in their right mind would have ever bet money on them the year before.
Even since then, many in the Democratic Party, like the Democratic Leadership Council, have tried very hard to squash this system which put too much power in the hands of possible political mavericks with a strong grass-roots presence. Over the years they have managed to tighten the nominating calendar to keep out future McGovern’s and Carters and solidify a frontrunner early on. In 1972, it wasn't clear who the Democratic nominee might be until the actual convention. In 1976 it was up in the air until late that summer. In 1988 Dukakis didn't nail it until early June. In 2004, Kerry was the nominee by March. Now, according to Morris
Which is another way of saying we really won't have a primary at all. As flawed as the first in the nation system in New Hampshire and Iowa were (now add in Nevada and South Carolina), it did allow candidates who inspired Democratic voters but were short on money to have a say. Under the new calendar unless you have spent the last five years building an enormous fundraising network and building patronage and unless you can impress pollsters with name-recognition, you're out even if you can win in Iowa or New Hampshire.
Voters, particularly progressive Democratic ones lose out. Clinton will feel little need to respond to her challengers, particular vocal progressive ones like John Edwards and to a lesser extent Barack Obama, despite the fact that she might very well lose in Iowa and possibly Nevada to either one of them. She will be like Humphrey redux, deaf and dumb to the feelings of the party’s base. And we will get stuck with a weaker candidate in the general election.
On the GOP side Morris points out that the new super-primary will likely help out Rudy Giuliani. I agree, which means that the Republicans will get stuck with their strongest candidate in the general election out of this.
In other words we are back to the smoke filled rooms, even if the cigars have been replaced by no fat lattes and the big city Mayors have been replaced by pollsters, noisy talk show hosts and fundraising gurus.
Commenting on the move by nineteen states to move their primary day up until February 5, only two weeks after the New Hampshire primary, Morris says
“The effect of this gigantic sea change will be that whoever is the frontrunner
in each party by the fall of 2007 will be virtually certain to win the nomination because only the frontrunner can possibly hope to amass enough money to compete in half the country at once. Nobody but the likely winner in each
party will be able to compete at that level on Feb. 5.Money will now be king.
Nothing else will count very much. If you can afford to run a national campaign
three weeks after the first caucus, you will win. If you can’t, you’re doomed.
And the polling that designates a frontrunner now will do much to determine the
nominee.”
Right now in the Democrats, there is only one person who will likely be the frontrunner in abstract polls come the fall and has the money to go straight from New Hampshire and run a 19-20 state campaign at once. Of course, that's Sen. Clinton.
The creation of what Morris calls the Super-primary would be the final death of the reforms made in the Democratic Party nominating process by McGovern commission in 1972. Pre-'72, the Democratic Party picked its Presidential candidate in the proverbial smoke filled rooms. Big time Democratic Party big-wigs like big-city Mayors, heads of a state Democratic patronage machines, elected officials and representatives from organized labor would hash out the preferred candidate in back room somewhere. Primaries were kind of a sideshow and usually were only a way to prove the viability of a candidate in a general election, like JFK's famous victory in the West Virginia primary of 1960 that proved that Protestants could vote for a Catholic.
That system came under assault by the party's increasingly dominate anti-war faction in 1968 as pro-war Hubert Humphrey was foisted on the party despite the fact that the Vice-President had not even bothered to run in a single primary. The McGovern Commission, headed by Sen. George McGovern was entrusted to rewrite the rules of the selection process that would be more in line with feelings of the grassroots.
The system set up by McGovern was one where any candidate hoping to win the nomination had to compete in a series of primaries and caucuses. The primary dates were spread out far enough in the calendar that an underdog candidate could win early primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire through a grassroots campaign and then use the period of time between their upset victory and the next primary or caucus to raise money (now that they were more viable in eyes of party leaders) to play a competitive role. Its how McGovern himself and Jimmy Carter were able to win the nomination even though no one in their right mind would have ever bet money on them the year before.
Even since then, many in the Democratic Party, like the Democratic Leadership Council, have tried very hard to squash this system which put too much power in the hands of possible political mavericks with a strong grass-roots presence. Over the years they have managed to tighten the nominating calendar to keep out future McGovern’s and Carters and solidify a frontrunner early on. In 1972, it wasn't clear who the Democratic nominee might be until the actual convention. In 1976 it was up in the air until late that summer. In 1988 Dukakis didn't nail it until early June. In 2004, Kerry was the nominee by March. Now, according to Morris
"In effect, we will now have a national primary and the presidential nominating
season will last only three weeks from start to finish."
Which is another way of saying we really won't have a primary at all. As flawed as the first in the nation system in New Hampshire and Iowa were (now add in Nevada and South Carolina), it did allow candidates who inspired Democratic voters but were short on money to have a say. Under the new calendar unless you have spent the last five years building an enormous fundraising network and building patronage and unless you can impress pollsters with name-recognition, you're out even if you can win in Iowa or New Hampshire.
Voters, particularly progressive Democratic ones lose out. Clinton will feel little need to respond to her challengers, particular vocal progressive ones like John Edwards and to a lesser extent Barack Obama, despite the fact that she might very well lose in Iowa and possibly Nevada to either one of them. She will be like Humphrey redux, deaf and dumb to the feelings of the party’s base. And we will get stuck with a weaker candidate in the general election.
On the GOP side Morris points out that the new super-primary will likely help out Rudy Giuliani. I agree, which means that the Republicans will get stuck with their strongest candidate in the general election out of this.
In other words we are back to the smoke filled rooms, even if the cigars have been replaced by no fat lattes and the big city Mayors have been replaced by pollsters, noisy talk show hosts and fundraising gurus.
# posted by Gang of One @ 1:12 PM 
