Sunday, March 04, 2007
Ready for Rudy 08-Update
On Friday, I reported that former New York City Mayor and possible Republican Presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani was leading all other Republican contenders in a South Carolina GOP straw poll.
It turns out that Sen. John McCain managed to play a good game of catch up according to Fox News.
I still hold to my view the Giuliani is the likely GOP front runner. The fact that he can tie McCain in SC is still something that no one thought could happen. And Rudy is still leading in Iowa, beating out McCain by 7 points. Giuliani will need lots of polishing as a candidate between now and next fall, but I think he can do it and a victory in Iowa could really launch Giuliani and cause much of McCain's base to jump ship.
It turns out that Sen. John McCain managed to play a good game of catch up according to Fox News.
"Sen. John McCain pulled even with two of his Republican rivals when counting resumed Friday morning in a presidential straw poll in conservative Spartanburg County.
Though most of the roughly 800 votes were counted on Thursday night, ballots tallied Friday morning weighed heavily in McCain's favor, said GOP county chairman Rick Beltram. The updated count put McCain in a dead heat with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and California Rep. Duncan Hunter. Beltram would not release any specific numbers and said a final tally would be known Friday afternoon."
I still hold to my view the Giuliani is the likely GOP front runner. The fact that he can tie McCain in SC is still something that no one thought could happen. And Rudy is still leading in Iowa, beating out McCain by 7 points. Giuliani will need lots of polishing as a candidate between now and next fall, but I think he can do it and a victory in Iowa could really launch Giuliani and cause much of McCain's base to jump ship.
Labels: Rudy Giuliani
Friday, March 02, 2007
Get Ready For Rudy 08
The ultra-right wing folks at NewsMax have just posted a new GOP straw poll taken in South Carolina.
Even in probably the most conservative state in the US, Giuliani is far ahead. But this is not supposed to happen. In the weird world of media punditry, Giuliani is somehow considered a "liberal"; therefore is supposed to crash and burn among Republican primary voters. According to the red-blue map handed out to all reporters in January 2000, New York is blue; therefore anyone coming from there has got to be on the lefty side of things. All those NASCAR watching, church going, "family values", gun loving Republican exurban voters are supposed to not like him. But not only do they put up with him, they love him. He's the Obama of the right.
He is leading in nearly every poll.True Rudy never made a big deal about abortion nor gays. I really don't think he has a prob with either of them personally. I do remember Giuliani trying to briefly start a culture war with the Brooklyn Museum but I doubt that helped him in the polls. Oh, and he dressed in drag sometimes. But if you took a bunch of Republicans from "Red" states and stuck them in Los Angeles or Boston they would stop making a big deal about it to. It's just not an issue that will help you get elected in the city.
But as someone who lives through the Giuliani years from the start, I can tell you that he was probably the most right wing Mayor the city ever had. Talk about being a divider. Either you loved Rudy (which usually meant you were white, probably of Italian, Irish, or Jewish extraction, lived in a far out part of Queens or on Staten Island or worked as a cop.) or you hated him (usually making you of African American or Puerto Rican extraction, living in inner Brooklyn or the Bronx, or you were part of the declining species of white Manhattan liberals.)True the city did get cleaned up and crime took a dive (as it did in every US city btw during the same time) but he went after many of gains of liberal New York City with a vengeance that would make Margaret Thatcher proud. Raised tuition and instituted tougher admition standards for City University, instituted some of the first "workfare standards", went after the public sector unions. Rudy even had his own think tank of ultra-right neo-conservatives, the Manhattan Institute. Who btw they consider to be a very good conservative.
This is not to mention the racially polarizing police brutality that reached near epidemic proportions in the late 90’s. Giuliani would have never done what his successor Bloomberg did after Sean Bell was killed and actually meet with the family of the victim and actually sit down with black leaders.
Of course, this is not why Republicans in South Carolina and Iowa are going gaga for him. Giuliani’s presidential ambitions were made in the waning days of his term. Primar
y voters are in these key early states actually get to see the hero of 9/11 in action. The guy who took Al-Qaeda head on. And as important as social issues still are to the right, national security usually trumps it. Like in 2004. As long Giuliani avoids kicking sand in James Dobson’s face like McCain did in 2000, and keeps his comments on gay rights and abortion to a minimum the other stuff will slide.
Romney has little appeal besides looking Presidential and McCain is burned out from the last eight years in DC. (Anyone see him announcing on Letterman? It looked like it was already over for him.)
Democrats should be prepared to take on Giuliani in 08.
"In a sign of what die-hard Republicans may think of the field of presidential contenders, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was leading 10 other candidates Thursday in a straw poll in conservative Spartanburg County, South Carolina.With 81 of 92 precincts reporting, Giuliani garnered 158 votes. California Rep. Duncan Hunter was a close second with 152 votes, and Arizona Sen. John McCain was third with 116 votes, according to county GOP officials.Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback had 83 votes, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had 80 votes and Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee rounded out the front-runners with 21 votes."
Even in probably the most conservative state in the US, Giuliani is far ahead. But this is not supposed to happen. In the weird world of media punditry, Giuliani is somehow considered a "liberal"; therefore is supposed to crash and burn among Republican primary voters. According to the red-blue map handed out to all reporters in January 2000, New York is blue; therefore anyone coming from there has got to be on the lefty side of things. All those NASCAR watching, church going, "family values", gun loving Republican exurban voters are supposed to not like him. But not only do they put up with him, they love him. He's the Obama of the right.
He is leading in nearly every poll.True Rudy never made a big deal about abortion nor gays. I really don't think he has a prob with either of them personally. I do remember Giuliani trying to briefly start a culture war with the Brooklyn Museum but I doubt that helped him in the polls. Oh, and he dressed in drag sometimes. But if you took a bunch of Republicans from "Red" states and stuck them in Los Angeles or Boston they would stop making a big deal about it to. It's just not an issue that will help you get elected in the city.
But as someone who lives through the Giuliani years from the start, I can tell you that he was probably the most right wing Mayor the city ever had. Talk about being a divider. Either you loved Rudy (which usually meant you were white, probably of Italian, Irish, or Jewish extraction, lived in a far out part of Queens or on Staten Island or worked as a cop.) or you hated him (usually making you of African American or Puerto Rican extraction, living in inner Brooklyn or the Bronx, or you were part of the declining species of white Manhattan liberals.)True the city did get cleaned up and crime took a dive (as it did in every US city btw during the same time) but he went after many of gains of liberal New York City with a vengeance that would make Margaret Thatcher proud. Raised tuition and instituted tougher admition standards for City University, instituted some of the first "workfare standards", went after the public sector unions. Rudy even had his own think tank of ultra-right neo-conservatives, the Manhattan Institute. Who btw they consider to be a very good conservative.
This is not to mention the racially polarizing police brutality that reached near epidemic proportions in the late 90’s. Giuliani would have never done what his successor Bloomberg did after Sean Bell was killed and actually meet with the family of the victim and actually sit down with black leaders.
Of course, this is not why Republicans in South Carolina and Iowa are going gaga for him. Giuliani’s presidential ambitions were made in the waning days of his term. Primar
y voters are in these key early states actually get to see the hero of 9/11 in action. The guy who took Al-Qaeda head on. And as important as social issues still are to the right, national security usually trumps it. Like in 2004. As long Giuliani avoids kicking sand in James Dobson’s face like McCain did in 2000, and keeps his comments on gay rights and abortion to a minimum the other stuff will slide.Romney has little appeal besides looking Presidential and McCain is burned out from the last eight years in DC. (Anyone see him announcing on Letterman? It looked like it was already over for him.)
Democrats should be prepared to take on Giuliani in 08.
Labels: GOP, Manhattan Institute, Rudy Giuliani
